Tailings Dam Failures and Natural Hazards in the US
Paper Number: 2026-03
Document Date: 3/2026
Author(s): Cody Nehiba
JEL Classification: Q54, Q30, H23
Keywords: Tailings dams, surface impoundments, dam failure, natural hazards
Abstract: Tailings dams are simple earth-fill embankment dams commonly used to store waste products of mining or other industrial operations in perpetuity. Due to the sheer size, hazardous nature of their contents, and indefinite lifetimes, releases or structural failures of these dams could potentially have large impacts on human health and the environment. To better understand these risks, this paper examines the factors potentially impacting tailings dam failures, spills, and other incidents. I link data on dams and incidents to examine failures in the US between 1989–2022. I estimate the relationships between incidents and the dam’s age, design characteristics, and location characteristics including natural hazard risk. I find an increasing probability of an incident occurring as dams age, but complete failures remain rare. I find little statistical evidence that dam design characteristics, underlying flood hazards, or historical rainfall affect the probability of tailings dam incidents. However, dams in more densely populated areas — which tend to be inspected more frequently — are less prone to incidents. It is possible that the higher expected harm from dams in more populated areas in the event of a failure may lead to beneficial differences in maintenance.
This paper is part of the Environmental Economics Working Paper Series.