About ICLUS

Climate and land-use change are major drivers of global environmental change. Impact assessments frequently demonstrate that interactions between climate and land-use change may create serious challenges for aquatic ecosystems, water quality, and air quality. In many cases, it is impossible to assess the impact of climate change without consideration of population dynamics, land use dynamics, or both.

The Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project produced spatially explicit projections of population and land-use that are based on Intergovernmental 
Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) scenarios and pathways.

First, social, economic, and demographic storylines were adapted for the United States. These modified storylines were then used to create population projections that would reflect different assumptions about fertility, mortality, and immigration through the end of this century.

Next, a spatial interaction model was used to simulate the annual movement of people within the United States. Then the results of these population projections are used to calculate the demand for new residential lands.

History

Below is a list of important milestones related to the ICLUS project.

Publications

EPA Reports

• Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2) (Final Report)
• Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

Datasets/Metadata

• ICLUS Downloads